We are in what is likely the final big weekend for Avatar as Alice in Wonderland takes over the valuable 3-D real estate next weekend (assuming this does not come to pass). So it's a good time to review not just the film, but it's impact on film-making...1. James Cameron remains box office champ. There were a lot of questions leading up to Avatar's release, to say nothing of Ferngully and Smurf jokes. When it's all said and done, Cameron owns the new domestic and international box office records. He beat his own records set with Titanic and did it with his very next major theatrical release. There are plenty of criticisms about the movie, but nobody, NOBODY, knows Hollywood like the self-proclaimed King of the World. All of which leads us to...
2. Will Hollywood learn the right lessons? The out-of-the gate answer is a resounding "no." Avatar became a box office juggernaut for a few reasons: 1) 3-D technology, 2) timing, and 3) word of mouth. The 3-D technology is the biggest miscalculation going on in Hollywood economics today. Avatar is a successful 3-D movie because, at every phase of production, it was designed to be a 3-D movie. What you see on the screen is a director understanding the technology and using it to draw an audience into a new world. Simply converting a movie like Clash of the Titans to 3-D in post-production can never be as effective. Sure, studios will earn a premium on the initial weeks of release. But when the next 3-D movie is right around the corner, the movie's time in relatively scarce 3-D theaters will be cut short. Avatar did not have anything to boot it from those 3-D screens until this week, and has had great word of mouth as a movie that can only be experienced in some stadium seating. None of the movies heading to theaters now will have those benefits.
3. Weta Worksop is a powerhouse. For the better part of 30 years, ILM was the only game in town for major studio releases. Then a small independent film based on an obscure author's work placed Weta Workshop in New Zealand on the map as its first real competitor. The company's work on Avatar has leapfrogged it beyond ILM. Now, even George Lucas' best buddy Steven Spielberg is hanging with kiwis to play with newest toys. In the same way ILM was Lucas' true legacy, Weta is quickly becoming Peter Jackson's.
4. Remember the international markets. At its heart, Avatar told a simply story with whiz-bang special effects and great action set pieces. It's made more than the GDP of countries like Liberia and Bhutan. A lot of the reason is that it translates really well everywhere while offering visuals no one has ever seen. For those who thought the plot and dialogue of Avatar was insipid, guess what? Expect a lot more where that came from.
5. Electronics companies better getting working on the home theater 3-D systems really fast. The hemorraging of the DVD market is something that has been covered a lot. However, in exchange for that $3 dollar premium for 3-D glasses, studios are going to lose even more DVD sales. A great 3-D experiences requires you to sit in a theater. The Avatar: Special Edition Director's Cut on the average television screen just won't cut it. I would expect Avatar to sell a lot of DVDs, but ultimately consumers are going to learn that they can't replicate the theater experience at home. Sony and others are starting to address this, but it will be years before your average household can match the full immersion the viewer gets in Avatar. I personally am in no way jonesing for my own DVD copy of Pandora as I know it can do nothing but disappoint.
I loved Avatar and will probably try catch it one last time on the big 3-D screen. It is having a bigger impact on film-making, marketing and distribution. And, frankly that is not entirely a great thing.
